My Summer 2009 Forecast and Sunspots and the Jet Stream

(Above: Sunspot Charts)

Today we have a guest post by Magicland Farms’ resident weather guru AKA The Boss:

What will the summer temperatures be like in Newaygo County, Michigan? (For those across the planet, Newaygo County is located in the west-central part of the Lower Peninsula of the State of Michigan in the United States of America.) Well, first NOAA thinks the temperature will be about normal. Ditto for the Old Farmer’s Almanac although they think it might be a touch above normal. Accuweather.com thinks it will be cooler than normal. (Average highs here in June are about 80, July about 82 and August about 81, with night time low temperatures about 22 degrees cooler than the days high.) What do I think? It will be warmer than normal. Why? A lot has to do with recently noticing that the really hot summers, 1935 and 1936, 1954 and 1955, 1988 and 1995 are the same years that the sunspot number was at its minimum AND the sunspots were just starting to return. That’s what 2009 looks like too, although we won’t know for sure that the sun is becoming more active until after summer is over but it looks that way right now. There is something else. It’s the jet stream, more technically it’s the upper air wind flow (above 35,000 feet). Recently, here in mid to late May, the jet stream has been stuck where it normally is in August—way up in central Canada. This is unusual and, to me anyway, implies it will likely stay there for the duration of summer because things are warming up in Canada faster now than any time of the year (this part is normal). (No doubt there will be a few dips down into the states but these will likely be of just a few days duration.) Cool summers here in west-central Michigan, which is what Accuweather.com is forecasting, always have the Jet Stream farther south than normal and not farther north. One other thing. There has been a heat wave in many parts of Asia, including part of Siberia. Look to see in the next 2 weeks if Alaska gets a heat wave. If so, we may have a summer to rival that of 1988 and 1995. Don’t panic! I am not forecasting anything like the disastrously scorching summers of the mid 1930s!

1 Comment »

Annemarie on May 27th 2009 in Weather

One Response to “My Summer 2009 Forecast and Sunspots and the Jet Stream”

  1. Paul Yeager responded on 27 Jun 2009 at 10:27 pm #

    Interesting forecast–I'll have to come back in the fall to see how it worked out.

    I used to work at AccuWeather, by the way! I know that one of the reasons the forecast was for cooler-than-normal weather was the abundance of moisture in the ground from spring rain, with the theory being that some of the sun's energy that would normally go to warming the ground would go to evaporating moisture instead.

    Regardless, any forecast is more useful than the long-range forecast by the government

    http://cloudyandcool.com/2009/05/27/summer-2009-forecast/

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