Today we have a guest post by Magicland Farms’ resident weather guru AKA The Boss:
If you look back at my 2009 summer forecast you might think I goofed big time but I forgot to mention the forecast was for Texas and not Michigan! Just teasin’. By the way Texas did have one of the hottest summers ever although if you took a leisurely summer afternoon’s drive north you might have shut off your car’s A/C just as the sun got low in the sky.
Let’s look again at the few sentences that form the heart of my summer of 2009 forecast:
“What do I think. It (the 2009 summer) will be warmer than normal. Why? A lot has to do with recently noticing that the really hot summers, 1935 and 1936, 1954 and 1955, 1988 and 1995 are the same years that the sunspot number was at its minimum AND the sunspots were just starting to return.”
The point here is that I assumed when I made the forecast that sunspots were about to reappear. This was what was forecast to happen based on hundreds of years of observation. But the sunspots never appeared all summer and fall. Just didn’t happen.
Even though the lack of sunspots was really weird, I did mention this possibility in my forecast. Here is a sentence I copied from that 2009 summer forecast:
“That’s what 2009 looks like too, although we won’t know for sure that the sun is becoming more active until after summer is over but it looks that way right now.”
While no one knows for sure why this occurs: hot summers being associated with the return of the sunspots and not by the actual number of sunspots, one possible explanation follows:
Think of the sun as a pot of very hot water near its boiling point, say 205F. If you keep the heat on low to keep the water on at 205F nothing seems to happen. Then you turn the knob on the stove to medium and as the water rises to near boiling (212F at sea level) bubbles of water vapor will start at the bottom of the pot and float toward the surface. Probably a similar thing happens to the sun when there are no sunspots. The temperature is a bit below some critical point (which must be somewhere around 100 million degrees in its center although the sun’s surface is a relatively cool 10,000F) Then when the sun’s internal temperature increases, bubbles start forming deep down and rise to the surface, creating the sunspots.. Exactly how long it takes from the time the sun’s internal temperature rises to the time the sunspots form is a guess, although it’s probably closer to days or weeks rather than minutes and hours. A hotter sun of course usually means warmer land temperatures especially during the summer in areas north of the tropic of Cancer or south of the tropic of Capricorn, which includes all of the continental United States.
While there are other factors to consider, such as the El Nino which looks right now it will turn into a whopper (however, El Nino’s significance regarding summer weather is an unknown quantity), my 2010 forecast is for another return to the summers of the mid 1950s. Hopefully, the summers of the 1930s won’t ever return. This isn’t simply hope, since the summers in the mid 1930s likely were so extreme because of the farming practices that helped create the dustbowl which caused a drought or perhaps vice versa. Excessively dry soils, as meteorologists know, are associated with above normal air temperatures because the sun doesn’t expend its energy in evaporating water all it needs to do is warm the ground and air which uses quite a bit less energy than changing water from liquid to its gaseous state.
The bottom line. Look for a hot dry summer throughout the Midwest including Newaygo County Michigan and Magicland Farms. Of course, if the sunspots fade away in spring and summer, which would be truly startling, forget my forecast.
FYI: The latest NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s June, July, August (Summer 2010) prediction is for normal temperatures in Newaygo County, Michigan and the Midwest in general. Joe Bastardi from Accuweather hasn’t publicly issued a forecast yet and it is hard to determine yet what he thinks.
I want to apologize to anyone who made a comment on my summer 2009 post and I failed to respond. One of my New Year’s resolutions is to look over any comments to the blog and respond in a timely manner. I do greatly appreciate any comments and I want to encourage them.
Annemarie on January 10th 2010 in Weather