In blog posts from previous years, and also on our website, we shyly hinted about the upcoming summer. This year it is so clear that there is no need to hint—UNLESS AN ASTEROID HITS EARTH OR A HUGE VOLCANO ERUPTS OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT AFFECTS THE EARTH THIS SPRING, THE SUMMER IS GOING TO BE ABNORMALLY WARM—I’M AFRAID TO SAY HOT BECAUSE MOI, MOI’S WIFE AND MOST OF THE REST OF US AT MAGICLAND FARMS CAN’T TAKE THE HEAT.  (We spend lots of our time in the hot sun and when you are in the middle of a corn field on a sunny day the temperature is at least 10F warmer than out on a golf course or a lake.) WARM IS FINE,  HOT AIN’T! But there is a definitely possibility that it will be hot. Also, it looks dry except perhaps for those stray tropical systems that recently have drifted over Michigan and brought helpful (and sometimes not so helpful) rain. Why are we so sure about the summer? Simple. Canada has had its warmest winter ever recorded and there is little—if any– snow left up there. It isn’t widely known but, under clear sky conditions, central Canada gets more energy from the sun during May through July than Texas! Without snow and ice the sun keeps heating the ground up and keeps heating it up…. The other reason is that while the Gulf of Mexico is unbelievably cold, the tropical Atlantic is near record high levels.  If it stays that way, watch out for a huge number of whoppers of Hurricanes.  However, it doesn’t seem likely it will stay so abnormally warm during the summer.  If it does…well, sell your insurance stocks quickly! What is likely though is an active Hurricane year and this nearly always means warmer than normal summers over the Great Lakes. This combined with little snow in Canada makes the spring and summer forecast quite easy. Another reason, by the way, for the warm summer is the fading El Nino. This will likely also increase tropical Atlantic activity and which goes along with warmer conditions in Michigan. By the way last year, despite the much cooler than normal June through August temperatures, all our warm crops—watermelon, sweet potatoes, late tomatoes—ripened well. What this means is we really don’t need warmer than normal summers to ripen everything just fine. Normal is just great! Too bad normal is abnormal!

(Above: Sunspot Charts)

Today we have a guest post by Magicland Farms’ resident weather guru AKA The Boss:

What will the summer temperatures be like in Newaygo County, Michigan? (For those across the planet, Newaygo County is located in the west-central part of the Lower Peninsula of the State of Michigan in the United States of America.) Well, first NOAA thinks the temperature will be about normal. Ditto for the Old Farmer’s Almanac although they think it might be a touch above normal. Accuweather.com thinks it will be cooler than normal. (Average highs here in June are about 80, July about 82 and August about 81, with night time low temperatures about 22 degrees cooler than the days high.) What do I think? It will be warmer than normal. Why? A lot has to do with recently noticing that the really hot summers, 1935 and 1936, 1954 and 1955, 1988 and 1995 are the same years that the sunspot number was at its minimum AND the sunspots were just starting to return. That’s what 2009 looks like too, although we won’t know for sure that the sun is becoming more active until after summer is over but it looks that way right now. There is something else. It’s the jet stream, more technically it’s the upper air wind flow (above 35,000 feet). Recently, here in mid to late May, the jet stream has been stuck where it normally is in August—way up in central Canada. This is unusual and, to me anyway, implies it will likely stay there for the duration of summer because things are warming up in Canada faster now than any time of the year (this part is normal). (No doubt there will be a few dips down into the states but these will likely be of just a few days duration.) Cool summers here in west-central Michigan, which is what Accuweather.com is forecasting, always have the Jet Stream farther south than normal and not farther north. One other thing. There has been a heat wave in many parts of Asia, including part of Siberia. Look to see in the next 2 weeks if Alaska gets a heat wave. If so, we may have a summer to rival that of 1988 and 1995. Don’t panic! I am not forecasting anything like the disastrously scorching summers of the mid 1930s!